Developing Effective Scenario Planning - Skills to Manage Uncertainty

Your senior management team will benefit from this In-house programme which will increase their understanding of how best to meet the challenges of the constantly changing commercial environment and how it can maximise the opportunities to ensure continued growth and increasing profits.

Course Overview

This practical In-house programme will deliver the skills and knowledge essential for your senior management team to develop the key strategies that will determine the success of your organisation despite the complex situations that can arise through external pressures and internal change.

It will show your senior team how to:

  • Envisaged alternative futures for your organisation
  • Create an engaging and mind-stretching process on how better to map out strategies for the organisation
  • Identify how uncertainty can be a creative force in business strategy development
  • Understand how scenarios should be linked to business strategy
  • Use a systematic approach to trend spot and to conceptualise appropriate scenarios

Your next step is to call us now on +44 (0)20 7729 6677 or email us at info@falconbury.co.uk or use our contact form and find out how we can help. There are no commitments, and if we cannot help our advice and recommendations are free of charge.

Sample Programme Day 1

Opening up communication

  • What is scenario planning all about and why do we bother with it?*
  • Dealing with uncertainty and the role of scenario planning
  • How we tend to handle uncertainty problems and crisis
  • What scenarios are all about, possible models of the future

Case study

  • What does scenario planning look like and produce?

Understanding the present situation

  • Our organization analysed with the SWAFDOT approach
  • The external environment using the EPISTLE approach
  • Practical exercise

What subjects do we need to address?

  • Who is responsible?
  • What is the decision focus?
  • Designing the scenario planning process?
  • Who facilitates the process and what skills are needed?
  • Who should be in the scenario planning team?
  • Identifying critical forces and drivers in the external environment
  • What is our ‘business idea’ and how can we add more value?
  • Practical exercise

Steps in creating scenarios

  • The TAIDA method of tracking,analysing,imaging,deciding and acting
  • Key issues on importance and predictability/unpredictability of forces and drivers
  • Identifying axes of uncertainty
  • Selecting the scenario logics based on the cross over of the axes
  • Writing story lines: title, brief description, narrative
  • Practical exercise

Preparation for Day Two

  • Developing a scenario

Sample Programme Day 2

Review of Day One, learning points, benefits and concerns

Developing creativity

  • Key concepts and processes

Scenario planning exercise

  • Putting the learning from Day One into practice

From Scenarios to decisions

  • Communicating the results
  • Promoting a change orientated culture

Scenarios to influence public attitudes

  • Case studies
  • Promoting learning
  • Developing speed learning using the OODA loop
  • Kolb’s learning loop concept

Dealing with the human issues

  • Managing and facilitating group sessions
  • Understanding group dynamics
  • Understanding other people
  • Helping the group generate ideas
  • Managing group thought processes
  • The ‘perceptional’ iceberg

Strategic conversations

  • Muliple perspectives and the ‘view from the balcony’
  • Vision, and techniques to create memories of the future

The Scenario Planner’s Toolbox

  • Creating an effective process

Effective change leadership

  • Overcoming resistance to change
  • Understanding how corporate culture facilitates or inhibits change